The NBA playoffs look to be some of the best we've had in years. You have the favorites- Cleveland and L.A. , the young teams with promise- Portland and Orlando, and the former powerhouses who are not 100 percent- San Antonio and Boston. The real question will be will anyone stop the Lakers or Cavs? Is the Kobe- LeBron Finals inevitable? Hey, this is the playoffs, where amazing happens!
Here's a breakdown of every playoff team in the West:
1) Los Angeles Lakers- This is undoubtedly the team to beat in the West. Nobody in the West is in Kobe's class. Gasol has had an extremely underrated year, which nobody realizes because of the media's love affair with Kobe. Add Odom and Bynum too the mix, that is the best top four in the NBA, hands down. To me, it doesn't look like any team in the West has the talent to beat them in a series, but if the lose it will be because of the point guard play. Fisher and Farmar have not been good, to say the least. On the other hand, if they turn it on in the playoffs, they will be practically unbeatable.
X- factor: Point guard play- Derek Fisher has been here before, and he can make some big shots, but it appears his age is getting to him. Is it possible that Farmar excels in under pressure? Who knows, but if these guys step it up, the Lakers will be very hard to beat.
2) Denver Nuggets- The Nuggets are really tied for second place, they just hold the tiebreakers. I don't think they are as good as San Antonio or Portland. Chauncey Billups totally revitalized this team. I think you have to question Allen Iverson's legacy after taking two teams down in one season. If Iverson was on this Nuggets team right now I think they are the 8 seed or they totally miss the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how the Pistons do without him in the playoffs. Back to the Nuggets, Carmelo has impressed me when I've seen him this year, but I think he is not in the Wade, LeBron class as he was put in a couple years ago. Talent wise, in that draft, he should be mentioned with Chris Bosh rather than D-Wade or LeBron. J.R. Smith has been hot lately and if he keeps it up, look out- the guy can flat out fill it up. Also, you have the always- injured duo of Nene and Kenyon Martin who have both played pretty well this year. That's really not a bad PF-C combo when you look at it. This team worries me with its character issues and I worry about their mental toughness for the playoffs.
X-factor: J.R. Smith- This guy is one of the best shooters in the league, but he is very streaky and can disappear from a game. If he can consistently hit his threes the Nuggets are tough, but if he is facing a lockdown defender they might be in trouble.
3) San Antonio Spurs- Tim Duncan and Co. have a lot of question marks. Ginobili is hurt and the only other scorer they have is Tony Parker, although Michael Finley (Michael Finley?) has been playing well. Add in that Duncan is playing with sore knees and things don't look good. One thing the Spurs have going for them is Greg Popovich, the best coach in the league. He knows how to put his team in position to win and he will get them one win in the series. If Duncan's knees hold up this Spurs team can maybe get to the Conference Finals.
X-factor: Tim Duncan- His knees worry me. He's been playing for a while and at the end of every season he gets more tired and more tired. Next year Tony Parker might overtake him as the Spurs best player. If the Spurs can get four vintage Tim Duncan games a series the will win four games in the series.
4) Portland Trail Blazers- I really like this team. There is a lot of talk about them being inexperienced and not ready for the playoffs but the key guys on this team are very mature basketball- wise. Especially Brandon Roy. Roy is perhaps the most underrated player in the league, he is very fun to watch and he is super-clutch. The thing I worry about with him is that he will take personal blame for their losses and it may effect him in later games. Lamarcus Aldridge turned it on late in the season and really emerged as one of the best power fowards in the league. He will create many matchup problems. Oden- Pryzbilla is very underrated center combination. Neither is great but not to many team have two starter-quality centers like Oden and Pryz. Two guys to keep an eye on: Travis Outlaw and Rudy Fernandez. These guys come up when their team needs them and have been playing great. These guys are good.
X-factor: Greg Oden- Oden is the key if this team if, like many are saying,they can challenge the Lakers. If Oden starts to play up to his potential in the playoffs Portland will be hard to stop. He thrived under pressure in college, going for 25 points in the national title game against Al Horford, an NBA starter. Perhaps now is when Oden starts to play for real, if he does look out.
5) Houston Rockets- The team that nevers wins in the first round is back. Perhaps they got rid of the curse though since T- Mac is gone. There is much to like about this team, especially on defense. Battier and Artest form the best defender duo in the league. Not too many teams have two shutdown guys like that. In fact no other team does. On the offensive end they need somebody besides Yao to step up. Aaron Brooks has shown promise and Artest has him moments (and bad moments) but they lack the guy to go to when they need a bucket. That will be the problem the Rockets run into.
X- factor: Ron Artest- If Artest can start scoring and being smart with his shots he will become a very dangerous weapon. He is one of the most talented on the ball defenders in the league and anybody going up against him will struggle. If the Rockets can pick up the offense he might be able to take Kobe out of a few games if the face the Lakers. For Houston to have a chance at the Finals, Ron- Ron has to be at his absolute best.
6) Dallas Mavericks- It looks as though Dallas's reign as Western powerhouse has come to and end. Dirk remains very good, but not great as he was a few years ago. When Jason Terry is your second best player that is not a good sign. That aside if the Mavs have anything going for them, it's experience. Their best five have all been to the Finals, and they've all lost. I can see this team as a very hungry team this postseason realizing this might be their last shot.
X-factor: Jason Kidd- Let's face it- Jason Kidd is a shell of his former self. He is the weak link on this team on defense. He can still contibute a lot on the offensive end though. He knocks down his open shots and creates for teammates. The Mavs might not make it far in the playoffs because Kidd will might have to guard the likes of Tony Parker and Chris Paul. That is not very promising.
7) New Orleans Hornets- This might be the most disappointing team of the season. Chris Paul was supposed to lead this team to new heights and the Lakers and they were supposed to fight it out in the conference finals. That is not out of the question but it is very unlikely now. Paul cannot carry a team on his back like a Kobe or LeBron, but his spurts of greatness rank right up there with those guys. He is unquestionably the best point guard in the league and should be for years too come. Tyson Chandler concerns me. He is not 100 percen and is really their only legit big man. David West is good but he's not a post player like Tyson is. Stojakovic has been here many time with the Kings, you better believe he wants to play the Lakers once more, perhaps start the rivalry many though would happen at the beginning of this year.
X- factor: Tyson Chandler- Chandlers health, which has never been good, is the key to this team's chances. He and CP3 have great chemistry and for them to lose that, plus his rebounding ability would be catastrophic to this team's chances.
8) Utah Jazz- Two Jazz legends were recently inducted to the Hall of Fame, the great John Stockton and current coach Jerry Sloan. Unfortunately for Jazz fans this will be the highlight of the season. Deron Williams can only take this team so far, especially with the non- existent help he's been getting. Boozer clearly isn't right and I hear Kirilenko is having psyhcological issues. This team is falling apart at the wrong time and it does not look like it can be fixed.
X-factor: Carlos Boozer- There is no question about his talent. He's proved he can put up elite power foward numbers and is one of the best in the league, but his injury struggle are infamous and they are affecting him now. However, another infamous Boozer trait is his contract year elevation in play. A strong showing in these playoffs would perhaps make him the free agent this summer, if he opts out of his contract. Which of these traits will ring true?
Here are the playoff matchups (I used the starting line-ups from ESPN.com)-
8) Utah @ 1) Los Angeles
PG D. Williams vs. D. Fisher- Edge: Utah
SG R. Brewer vs. K. Bryant- Edge: L.A. (duh!)
SF C. Miles vs T. Ariza- Edge: L.A.
PF C. Boozer vs P. Gasol- Edge: L.A.
C M. Okur vs A. Bynum- Edge: PUSH
Bench- Edge: L.A.
Verdict: Lakers in 4
Sentence Summary: The Jazz are too unfocused, banged up, and divided to beat a focused, healthy, united Lakers squad.
5) Houston @ 4) Portland
PG A. Brooks vs. S. Blake- Edge: Portland
SG R. Artest vs. B. Roy- Edge: Portland
SF S. Battier vs. N. Batum- Edge: Houston
PF L. Scola vs. L. Aldridge- Edge: Portland
C Yao vs J. Pryzbilla- Edge: Houston
Bench- Edge: Portland
Verdict: Blazers in 5
Sentence Summary: Blazers, who are great at home, take care of buisness at the Rose Garden and steal one in Houston as they shut down Yao.
6)Dallas vs. 3) San Antonio
PG J. Kidd vs. T. Parker- Edge: San Antonio
SG A. Wright vs R. Mason- Edge: San Antonio
SF J. Howard vs. M. Finley- Edge: Dallas
PF D. Nowitzki vs. T. Duncan- Edge: PUSH (b/c Duncan is injured, otherwise he gets the nod)
C E. Dampier vs. M. Bonner- Edge: San Antonio
Bench- Edge: Dallas
Verdict: Spurs in 7
Sentence Summary: The best first round matchup in the West finishes in dramatic fashion to re-kindle the fires of this rivalry.
7) New Orleans vs. 2) Denver
PG C. Paul vs. C. Billups- Edge: New Orleans
SG R. Butler vs. D. Jones- Edge:New Orleans
SF P. Stojakovic vs. C. Anthony- Edge: Denver
PF D. West vs. K. Martin- Edge: New Orleans
C T. Chandler vs. Nene- Edge: Nuggets
Bench: Nuggets
Verdict: Hornets in 6
Sentence Summary: Paul and Co. match-up well against the Nuggets and Denver never gets production from key players (Smith, Martin, Nene).
A Look Ahead: If my first round predictions hold true here is what will happen in the next rounds. ( I will write another post after the first round is over and have more in- depth evaluations of the match- ups)
Portland @ Los Angeles: Lakers in 7
New Orleans @ San Antonio: Hornets in 6
New Orleans @ Los Angeles: Lakers in 5
Conference Champions: Los Angeles Lakers (man I hated writing those words)
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