1) Cleveland Cavaliers- This looks like it will be LeBron's first of many MVP seasons, maybe it will also be one of many championship seasons. The guy is just amazing. I don't know how you can say Kobe is better than him at this point. Kobe's supporting cast is much better and the Cavs still had a better record. That is not to say that the Cavs supporting cast is not good. Mo Williams has been a great number two option. Ilgauskas is always solid and Varajao is the best role player in the NBA. Guys like West, Gibson, and Wallace provide extra spark off the bench, offensively and defensively. Also, the Cavs have only lost twice on their home court this season and they have the home court advantage throughout the playoffs. This is not a good sign for opposing teams.
X-factor: Mo Williams- LeBron has yet to win a championship because he has never had a reliable number two scorer- until now. If Williams can transfer his regular season success over to the playoffs than Cavs should cruise to the Finals.
2) Boston Celtics- The big question here is how will they do without KG, assuming he is really out for the entire playoffs. Without Garnett this team, on paper, doesn't look very good. They have Paul Pierce, who's put in a very good season, and Ray Allen, who can score, but besides those two they don't have a lot of firepower. Rondo is effective, but he's not a guy you can count on tho produce every game. I really do not think Boston wants to put their hopes on Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis, and Leon Powe to control the frontcourt. Dwight Howard will bully those guys.
X-factor: Paul Pierce- For the Celts to have a chance at repeating Pierce has to elevate his game to amazing heights. Pierce is one of the best players in the league and if he is on, he is very hard to stop, plus he is super- competitive and will do anything to win. I think he is one of the guys who puts a lot of pressure on himself, hopefully, for the Celtics sake, that does not wear him down. All of that said, I think Pierce will step up and make Boston a very tough opponent for anybody.
3) Orlando Magic- This team interests me greatly. Dwight Howard is always exciting to watch and they are deadly from three. A concern for Orlando should be frontcourt depth though. While Howard might be one of the best post players in the league, the Magic's power foward is a shooter and not very good in the post. Lewis is really more of a small foward, but while he will face some mismatches inside he will also be a mismatch to slower power forwards because of his ability to shoot the basketball. Hedo Turkoglu has had a history of breaking down at the end of the season and in the playoffs. This year he was hurting at the end of the year and his injuries could affect later on. That said, he is a very good player and could make the differnce in some games as well. Rafer Alston has done a good job with this team, but if they had Jameer Nelson right now the Magic's chances would greatly increase. Rafer takes too many bad shots, although he doesn't turn the ball over very much. If he doesn't try to be a hero they should be fine.
X-factor: Rafer Alston- I think if Alston can start shooting well this team can go far. Also, Alston just need to be a steady leader and not turn the ball over. That is the key for point guards- to not turn the ball over. Alston has talent, if Orlando gets his best these playoffs they will be tough.
4) Atlanta Hawks- Atlanta surprised many with their performance against the Celtics last year, nearly upsetting them in the first round. This years team isn't too different. Joe Johnson is very underrated and never gets the credit he deserves. You never see features about him, but I think he probably uses that stuff, including the Suns shunning him a few years back, as motivation. Josh Smith is as athletic as they come and can be a big factor in any series that Hawks are in. Al Horford has disappointed this year, but he has come on late and is better than many other centers he will have to face. Mike Bibby quietly had a very slid year and has a lot of playoff experience from his years with the Kings. He is one of many leftover players from those Kings teams on 7-8 years ago that are scattered around the league. He is veteran leader that will be crucial to this team success. However, their bench is not very good and they might struggle in a seven games series if their starters have to play a lot of minutes every night.
X-factor: Al Horford- The number three pick in the draft a few years back was supposed to have breakout season this year- it never happened. He has been good, but not a whole lot better than last year. Still, he has the talent and is one of the Hawks most valuable players. He had a good playoffs last year and has big game experience from college, winning two championships. I am expecting big things these playoffs from him.
5) Miami Heat- Dwyane Wade is great., but the rest of this team is not. They don't have a number two player. Jermaine O'Neal? Michael Beasley? O'Neal is shell of what he was in Indiana and Beasley hasn't come on like most predicted. I can't imagine Wade being able to bust his butt every night without getting tired, which is what he'll have to do for them to win. Chalmers has played good for a rookie, but he might struggle in the playoffs. Haslem is the only key guy from the Finals win in '06 (besides Wade, of coarse) and he is probably their second best player. That is not a good sign for them.
X-factor: Jermaine O'Neal- I think he still has some good games in him. He used to be one of the best big men in the league, he makes 20 million dollars for a reason. He was good, now he is not. However, if he gets a good matchup maybe he can tee off on somebody and take advantage of it.
6) Philadelphia 76ers- The glory days of Dr. J and Moses Malone are long gone. Long gone. The future doesn't show much promise either. Andre Igudala can play but he is not a number one option. Thaddeus Young is the bright spot for the future of this team. He is very athletic , although he is undersized for his position. Andre Miller is one of the steadiest points in the league, he always gets 14 points and 6 assists. If you are a Sixers fan you can always cound on him going out and giving you solid numbers. Outside of those three, things don't look good at all. Dalembert is good on D, but he can't score unless he is dunking. Lou Williams and Marreese Speights are good off the bench, but they don't exactly scare anybody. I don't see them as a dangerous team in these playoffs.
X-factor: Thaddeus Young- For Philly to have a shot of advancing they're going to need a big series from this young man. He has talent and he has performed very well this year- it will be interesting to see how he fares in his second time in the playoffs. His height might be a problem against some of the bigger power forwards, but he makes up with it with athleticism. They're gonna need some 20-8 games out of him to win.
7) Chicago Bull- Nobody saw this Bulls team coming. They were the most active team at the trade deadline and their moves have been extremely effective. John Salmons and Brad Miller have both been crucial to the turnaround. Ben Gordon has been dynamite down the stretch as well and Deng has shown flashes of great play as well. Another thing I like about this team is depth. They don't have any stars (besides Rose) but they have nine guys who can start. They've had a lot of top 10 picks for a while and they are finally paying off. Derrick Rose is looking like the next great point guard of the NBA. In two years I wouldn't be surprised if he is considered the best point guard in the league. If this Bulls team comes together, they will be very dangerous in the playoffs.
X-factor: Derrick Rose- This rookie can flat out play. He has skill and poise and looks to be a future superstar. I worry about him in the playoffs though because all of Chicago will be on his shoulders, especially since he is from the area. Will he be able to carry that burden and the physical strain of playing his first 82 games season? That is the question, isn't it.
8) Detroit Pistons- When the Pistons trade Chauncey Billups for AI, how many people thought Denver would be getting the best of the deal, not just by a little, but by far? Not many. Now Iverson is out and Billups is leading the Nuggets as a number 2 seed. I betcha Mr. Dumars is kicking himself now. The Pistons still have a lot of pieces from their team who have made the Eastern Conference Finals for six straight years. The problem with that is all of those players are past their primes (except for maybe Tayshaun). Rasheed is still productive, but he doesn't have those big games they've gotten from him in the past. Billups was the guy they counted on for a long time in the playoffs and Rip Hamilton isn't used to being the guy who has to score. Rodney Stuckey hasn't been what the expected either.
X-factor: Rodney Stuckey- The main reason they made the trade for Iverson was to get Stuckey into the lineup sooner rather than later. Stuckey hasn't been able to handle the pressure of being an NBA point guard yet though. He has shown glimpses but most people say he won't ever become an elite player as the Pistons have hoped. These playoffs will be a big test for him. If they can steal one or two from the Cavs, big things might again be mentioned with Stuckey's name.
Here are the matchups (lineups from ESPN.com)
8) Detroit @ 1) Cleveland
PG R. Stuckey vs. M. Williams- Edge: Cleveland
SG R. Hamilton vs. D. West- Edge: Detroit
SF T. Prince vs. L. James- Edge: Cleveland
PF A. McDyess vs. A. Varejao: Edge: Cleveland
C R. Wallace vs. Z. Ilgauskas: Edge: Detroit
Bench- Edge: Cleveland
Verdict: Cavs in 4
Sentence Summary: LeBron and the Cavs are hungry and will not put up with any monkey business from this discombobulated Pistons team.
5) Miami @ 4) Atlanta
PG M. Chalmers vs. M. Bibby- Edge: Atlanta
SG D. Wade vs. J. Johnson- Edge: Miami
SF J. Moon vs. M. Williams- Edge: Atlanta
PF U. Haslem vs. J. Smith- Edge: Atlanta
C J. O'Neal vs. A. Horford- Edge: PUSH
Bench: Edge- PUSH
Verdict: Hawks in 7
Sentence Summary: Dwyane Wade can only do so much, he just doesn't have enough talent around him to win a seven game series.
6) Philadelphia vs. 3) Orlando
PG A. Miller vs. R. Alston- Edge: Philly
SG W. Green vs. C. Lee- Edge: PUSH
SF A. Igudala vs. H. Turkoglu- Edge: Philly
PF T. Young vs. R. Lewis- Edge: Orlando
C S. Dalembert vs. D. Howard- Edge: Orlando
Bench- Edge: PUSH
Verdict: Magic in 5
Sentence Summary: Sixers can't keep up inside with Howard and Magic hit their threes all day long.
7) Chicago @ 2) Boston
PG D. Rose vs. R. Rondo- Edge: Chicago
SG B. Gordon vs. R. Allen- Edge: Boston
SF L. Deng vs. P. Pierce- Edge: Boston
PF T. Thomas vs. G. Davis- Edge: Chicago
C J. Noah vs. K. Perkins- Edge: PUSH
Bench- Edge: Chicago
Verdict:Boston in 7
Sentence Summary: The young Bulls give Boston a great fight but Pierce leads them on his back in game 7.
Look Ahead
Atlanta @ Cleveland: Cavs in 4
Orlando @ Boston: Magic in 7
Orlando @ Cleveland: Cavs in 6
Conference Champions: Cleveland Cavaliers
NBA Finals: Los Angeles @ Cleveland: Cavs in 7
NBA Champs: Cleveland Cavaliers (Finals MVP- LeBron James)
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