NBA Playoff Preview- Eastern Conference

Here is part two of my playoff preview- the Eastern Conference.

1) Cleveland Cavaliers- This looks like it will be LeBron's first of many MVP seasons, maybe it will also be one of many championship seasons. The guy is just amazing. I don't know how you can say Kobe is better than him at this point. Kobe's supporting cast is much better and the Cavs still had a better record. That is not to say that the Cavs supporting cast is not good. Mo Williams has been a great number two option. Ilgauskas is always solid and Varajao is the best role player in the NBA. Guys like West, Gibson, and Wallace provide extra spark off the bench, offensively and defensively. Also, the Cavs have only lost twice on their home court this season and they have the home court advantage throughout the playoffs. This is not a good sign for opposing teams.

X-factor: Mo Williams- LeBron has yet to win a championship because he has never had a reliable number two scorer- until now. If Williams can transfer his regular season success over to the playoffs than Cavs should cruise to the Finals.

2) Boston Celtics- The big question here is how will they do without KG, assuming he is really out for the entire playoffs. Without Garnett this team, on paper, doesn't look very good. They have Paul Pierce, who's put in a very good season, and Ray Allen, who can score, but besides those two they don't have  a lot of firepower. Rondo is effective, but he's not a guy you can count on tho produce every game. I really do not think Boston wants to put their hopes on Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis, and Leon Powe to control the frontcourt. Dwight Howard will bully those guys. 

X-factor: Paul Pierce- For the Celts to have a chance at repeating Pierce has to elevate his game to amazing heights. Pierce is one of the best players in the league and if he is on, he is very hard to stop, plus he is super- competitive and will do anything to win. I think he is one of the guys who puts a lot of pressure on himself, hopefully, for the Celtics sake, that does not wear him down. All of that said, I think Pierce will step up and make Boston a very tough opponent for anybody.

3) Orlando Magic- This team interests me greatly. Dwight Howard is always exciting to watch and they are deadly from three. A concern for Orlando should be frontcourt depth though. While Howard might be one of the best post players in the league, the Magic's power foward is a shooter and not very good in the post. Lewis is really more of a small foward, but while he will face some mismatches inside he will also be a mismatch to slower power forwards because of his ability to shoot the basketball. Hedo Turkoglu has had a history of breaking down at the end of the season and in the playoffs. This year he was hurting at the end of the year and his injuries could affect later on. That said, he is a very good player and could make the differnce in some games as well. Rafer Alston has done a good job with this team, but if they had Jameer Nelson right now the Magic's chances would greatly increase. Rafer takes too many bad shots, although he doesn't turn the ball over very much. If he doesn't try to be a hero they should be fine.

X-factor: Rafer Alston- I think if Alston can start shooting well this team can go far. Also, Alston just need to be a steady leader and not turn the ball over. That is the key for point guards- to not turn the ball over. Alston has talent, if Orlando gets his best these playoffs they will be tough.

4) Atlanta Hawks- Atlanta surprised many with their performance against the Celtics last year, nearly upsetting them in the first round. This years team isn't too different. Joe Johnson is very underrated and never gets the credit he deserves. You never see features about him, but I think he probably uses that stuff, including the Suns shunning him a few years back, as motivation. Josh Smith is as athletic as they come and can be a big factor in any series that Hawks are in. Al Horford has disappointed this year, but he has come on late and is better than many other centers he will have to face. Mike Bibby quietly had a very slid year and has a lot of playoff experience from his years with the Kings. He is one of many leftover players from those  Kings teams on 7-8 years ago that are scattered around the league. He is veteran leader that will be crucial to this team success. However, their bench is not very good and they might struggle in a seven games series if their starters have to play a lot of minutes every night.

X-factor: Al Horford- The number three pick in the draft a few years back was supposed to have breakout season this year- it never happened. He has been good, but not a whole lot better than last year. Still, he has the talent and is one of the Hawks most valuable players. He had a good playoffs last year and has big game experience from college, winning two championships. I am expecting big things these playoffs from him.

5) Miami Heat- Dwyane Wade is great., but the rest of this team is not. They don't have a number two player. Jermaine O'Neal? Michael Beasley? O'Neal is shell of what he was in Indiana and Beasley hasn't come on like most predicted. I can't imagine Wade being able to bust his butt every night without getting tired, which is what he'll have to do for them to win.  Chalmers has played good for a rookie, but he might struggle in the playoffs. Haslem is the only key guy from the Finals win in '06 (besides Wade, of coarse) and he is probably their second best player. That is not a good sign for them.

X-factor: Jermaine O'Neal- I think he still has some good games in him. He used to be one of the best big men in the league, he makes 20 million dollars for a reason. He was good, now he is not. However, if he gets a good matchup maybe he can tee off on somebody and take advantage of it.

6) Philadelphia 76ers- The glory days of Dr. J and Moses Malone are long gone. Long gone. The future doesn't show much promise either. Andre Igudala can play but he is not a number one option. Thaddeus Young is the bright spot for the future of this team. He is very athletic , although he is undersized for his position. Andre Miller is one of the steadiest points in the league, he always gets 14 points and 6 assists. If you are a Sixers fan you can always cound on him going out and giving you solid numbers. Outside of those three, things don't look good at all. Dalembert is good on D, but he can't score unless he is dunking.  Lou Williams and Marreese Speights are good off the bench, but they don't exactly scare anybody. I don't see them as a dangerous team in these playoffs.

X-factor: Thaddeus Young- For Philly to have a shot of advancing they're going to need a big series from this young man. He has talent and he has performed very well this year- it will be interesting to see how he fares in his second time in the playoffs. His height might be a problem against some of the bigger power forwards, but he makes up with it with athleticism. They're gonna need some 20-8 games out of him to win.

7) Chicago Bull- Nobody saw this Bulls team coming. They were the most active team at the trade deadline and their moves have been extremely effective. John Salmons and Brad  Miller have both been crucial to the turnaround. Ben Gordon has been dynamite down the stretch as well and Deng has shown flashes of great play as well. Another thing I like about this team is depth. They don't have any stars (besides Rose) but they have nine guys who can start. They've had a lot of top 10 picks for a while and they are finally paying off. Derrick Rose is looking like the next great point guard of the NBA. In two years I wouldn't be surprised if he is considered the best point guard in the league. If this Bulls team comes together, they will be very dangerous in the playoffs.

X-factor: Derrick Rose- This rookie can flat out play. He has skill and poise and looks to be a future superstar. I worry about him in the playoffs though because all of Chicago will be on his shoulders, especially since he is from the area. Will he be able to carry that burden and the physical strain of playing his first 82 games season? That is the question, isn't it.

8) Detroit Pistons- When the Pistons trade Chauncey Billups for AI, how many people thought Denver would be getting the best of the deal, not just by a little, but by far? Not many. Now Iverson is out and Billups is leading the Nuggets as a number 2 seed. I betcha Mr. Dumars is kicking himself now. The Pistons still have a lot of pieces from their team who have made the Eastern Conference Finals for six straight years. The problem with that is all of those players are past their primes (except for maybe Tayshaun). Rasheed is still productive, but he doesn't have those big games they've gotten from him in the past. Billups was the guy they counted on for a long time in the playoffs and Rip Hamilton isn't used to being the guy who has to score. Rodney Stuckey hasn't been what the expected either. 

X-factor: Rodney Stuckey- The main reason they made the trade for Iverson was to get Stuckey into the lineup sooner rather than later. Stuckey hasn't been able to handle the pressure of being an NBA point guard yet though. He has shown glimpses but most people say he won't ever become an elite player as the Pistons have hoped. These playoffs will be a big test for him. If they can steal one or two from the Cavs, big things might again be mentioned with Stuckey's name.

Here are the matchups (lineups from ESPN.com)

8) Detroit @ 1) Cleveland

PG R. Stuckey vs. M. Williams- Edge: Cleveland

SG R. Hamilton vs. D. West- Edge: Detroit

SF T. Prince vs. L. James- Edge: Cleveland

PF A. McDyess vs. A. Varejao: Edge: Cleveland

 C  R. Wallace vs. Z. Ilgauskas: Edge: Detroit

Bench- Edge: Cleveland

Verdict: Cavs in 4

Sentence Summary: LeBron and the Cavs are hungry and will not put up with any monkey business from this discombobulated Pistons team.

5) Miami @ 4) Atlanta

PG M. Chalmers vs. M. Bibby- Edge: Atlanta

SG D. Wade vs. J. Johnson- Edge: Miami

SF J. Moon vs. M. Williams- Edge: Atlanta

PF U. Haslem vs. J. Smith- Edge: Atlanta

 C  J. O'Neal vs. A. Horford- Edge: PUSH

Bench: Edge- PUSH

 Verdict: Hawks in 7

Sentence Summary: Dwyane Wade can only do so much, he just doesn't have enough talent around him to win a seven game series.

6) Philadelphia vs. 3) Orlando

PG A. Miller vs. R. Alston- Edge: Philly

SG W. Green vs. C. Lee- Edge: PUSH

SF A. Igudala vs. H. Turkoglu- Edge: Philly

PF T. Young vs. R. Lewis- Edge: Orlando

 C  S. Dalembert vs. D. Howard- Edge: Orlando

Bench- Edge: PUSH

Verdict: Magic in 5

Sentence Summary: Sixers can't keep up inside with Howard and Magic hit their threes all day long.

7) Chicago @ 2) Boston

PG D. Rose vs. R. Rondo- Edge: Chicago

SG B. Gordon vs. R. Allen- Edge: Boston

SF L. Deng vs. P. Pierce- Edge: Boston

PF T. Thomas vs. G. Davis- Edge: Chicago

 C  J. Noah vs. K. Perkins- Edge: PUSH

Bench- Edge: Chicago

Verdict:Boston in 7

Sentence Summary: The young Bulls give Boston a great fight but Pierce leads them on his back in game 7.

Look Ahead

Atlanta @ Cleveland: Cavs in 4

Orlando @ Boston: Magic in 7

Orlando @ Cleveland: Cavs in 6

Conference Champions: Cleveland Cavaliers 

NBA Finals: Los Angeles @ Cleveland: Cavs in 7

NBA Champs: Cleveland Cavaliers (Finals MVP- LeBron James)

NBA Playoff Preview- Western Conference

The NBA playoffs look to be some of the best we've had in years. You have the favorites- Cleveland and L.A. , the young teams with promise- Portland and Orlando, and the former powerhouses who are not 100 percent- San Antonio and Boston. The real question will be will anyone stop the Lakers or Cavs? Is the Kobe- LeBron Finals inevitable? Hey, this is the playoffs, where amazing happens!

Here's a breakdown of every playoff team in the West:

1) Los Angeles Lakers- This is undoubtedly the team to beat in the West. Nobody in the West is in Kobe's class. Gasol has had an extremely underrated year, which nobody realizes because of the media's love affair with Kobe. Add Odom and Bynum too the mix, that is the best top four in the NBA, hands down. To me, it doesn't look like any team in the West has the talent to beat them in a series, but if the lose it will be because of the point guard play. Fisher and Farmar have not been good, to say the least. On the other hand, if they turn it on in the playoffs, they will be practically unbeatable.

X- factor: Point guard play- Derek Fisher has been here before, and he can make some big shots, but it appears his age is getting to him. Is it possible that Farmar excels in under pressure? Who knows, but if these guys step it up, the Lakers will be very hard to beat.

2) Denver Nuggets- The Nuggets are really tied for second place, they just hold the tiebreakers.  I don't think they are as good as San Antonio or Portland.  Chauncey Billups totally revitalized this team. I think you have to question Allen Iverson's legacy after taking two teams down in one season. If  Iverson was on this Nuggets team right now I think they are the 8 seed or they totally miss the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how the Pistons do without him in the playoffs.  Back to the Nuggets, Carmelo has impressed me when I've seen him this year, but I think he is not in the Wade, LeBron class as he was put in a couple years ago. Talent wise, in that draft, he should be mentioned with Chris Bosh rather than D-Wade or LeBron. J.R. Smith has been hot lately and if he keeps it up, look out- the guy can flat out fill it up. Also,  you have the always- injured duo of Nene and Kenyon Martin who have both played pretty well this year. That's really not a bad PF-C combo when you look at it. This team worries me with its character issues and I worry about their mental toughness for the playoffs. 

X-factor: J.R. Smith- This guy is one of the best shooters in the league, but he is very streaky and can disappear from a game. If he can consistently hit his threes the Nuggets are tough, but if he is facing a lockdown defender they might be in trouble.

3) San Antonio Spurs- Tim Duncan and Co. have a lot of question marks. Ginobili is hurt and the only other scorer they have is Tony Parker, although Michael Finley (Michael Finley?) has been playing well. Add in that Duncan is playing with sore knees and things don't look good. One thing the Spurs have going for them is Greg Popovich, the best coach in the league. He knows how to put his team in position to win and he will get them one win in the series. If Duncan's knees hold up this Spurs team can maybe get to the Conference Finals. 

X-factor: Tim Duncan- His knees worry me. He's been playing for a while and at the end of every season he gets more tired and more tired. Next year Tony Parker might overtake him as the Spurs best player. If the Spurs can get four vintage Tim Duncan games a series the will win four games in the series. 

4) Portland Trail Blazers- I really like this team. There is a lot of talk about them being inexperienced and not ready for the playoffs but the key guys on this team are very mature basketball- wise. Especially Brandon Roy. Roy is perhaps the most underrated player in the league, he is very fun to watch and he is super-clutch. The thing I worry about with him is that he will take personal blame for their losses and it may effect him in later games. Lamarcus Aldridge turned it on late in the season and really emerged as one of the best power fowards in the league. He will create many matchup problems. Oden- Pryzbilla is very underrated center combination. Neither is great but not to many team have two starter-quality  centers like Oden and Pryz. Two guys to keep an eye on: Travis Outlaw and Rudy Fernandez. These guys come up when their team needs them and have been playing great. These guys are good.

X-factor: Greg Oden- Oden is the key if this team if, like many are saying,they can challenge the Lakers. If Oden starts to play up to his potential in the playoffs Portland will be hard to stop. He thrived under pressure in college, going for 25 points in the national title game against Al Horford, an NBA starter. Perhaps now is when Oden starts to play for real, if he does look out.

5) Houston Rockets- The team that nevers wins in the first round is back. Perhaps they got rid of the curse though since T- Mac is gone. There is much to like about this team, especially on defense. Battier and Artest form the best defender duo in the league. Not too many teams have two shutdown guys like that. In fact no other team does. On the offensive end they need somebody besides Yao to step up. Aaron Brooks has shown promise and Artest has him moments (and bad moments) but they lack the guy to go to when they need a bucket. That will be the problem the Rockets run into.

X- factor: Ron Artest- If Artest can start scoring and being smart with his shots he will become a very dangerous weapon. He is one of the most talented on the ball defenders in the league and anybody going up against him will struggle. If the Rockets can pick up the offense he might be able to take Kobe out of a few games if the face the Lakers. For Houston to have a chance at the Finals, Ron- Ron has to be at his absolute best.

6) Dallas Mavericks- It looks as though Dallas's reign as Western powerhouse has come to and end. Dirk remains very good, but not great as he was a few years ago. When Jason Terry is your second best player that is not a good sign. That aside if the Mavs have anything going for them, it's experience. Their best five have all been to the Finals, and they've all lost. I can see this team as a very hungry team this postseason realizing this might be their last shot.

X-factor: Jason Kidd- Let's face it- Jason Kidd is a shell of his former self. He is the weak link on this team on defense. He can still contibute a lot on the offensive end though. He knocks down his open shots and creates for teammates. The Mavs might not make it far in the playoffs because Kidd will might have to guard the likes of Tony Parker and Chris Paul. That is not very promising.

7) New Orleans Hornets- This might be the most disappointing team of the season. Chris Paul was supposed to lead this team to new heights and the Lakers and they were supposed to fight it out in the conference finals. That is not out of the question but it is very unlikely now. Paul cannot carry a team on his back like a Kobe or LeBron, but his spurts of greatness rank right up there with those guys. He is unquestionably the best point guard in the league and should be for years too come. Tyson Chandler concerns me. He is not 100 percen and is really their only legit big man. David West is good but he's not a post player like Tyson is. Stojakovic has been here many time with the Kings, you better believe he wants to play the Lakers once more, perhaps start the rivalry many though would happen at the beginning of this year.

X- factor: Tyson Chandler- Chandlers health, which has never been good, is the key to this team's chances. He and CP3 have great chemistry and for them to lose that, plus his rebounding ability would be catastrophic to this team's chances. 

8) Utah Jazz- Two Jazz legends were recently inducted to the Hall of Fame, the great John Stockton and current coach Jerry Sloan. Unfortunately for Jazz fans this will be the highlight of the season. Deron Williams can only take this team so far, especially with the non- existent help he's been getting. Boozer clearly isn't right and I hear Kirilenko is having psyhcological issues. This team is falling apart at the wrong time and it does not look like it can be fixed. 

X-factor: Carlos Boozer- There is no question about his talent. He's proved he can put up elite power foward numbers and is one of the best in the league, but his injury struggle are infamous and they are affecting him now. However, another infamous Boozer trait is his contract year elevation in play. A strong showing in these playoffs would perhaps make him the free agent this summer, if he opts out of his contract. Which of these traits will ring true?

Here are the playoff matchups (I used the starting line-ups from ESPN.com)-

8) Utah @ 1) Los Angeles

PG D. Williams vs. D. Fisher- Edge: Utah

SG R. Brewer vs. K. Bryant- Edge: L.A. (duh!)

SF C. Miles vs T. Ariza- Edge: L.A.

PF C. Boozer vs P. Gasol- Edge: L.A.

 C   M. Okur vs A. Bynum- Edge: PUSH

Bench- Edge: L.A.

Verdict: Lakers in 4

Sentence Summary: The Jazz are too unfocused, banged up, and divided to beat a focused, healthy, united Lakers squad.

5) Houston  @ 4) Portland

PG A. Brooks vs. S. Blake- Edge: Portland

SG R. Artest vs. B. Roy- Edge: Portland

SF S. Battier vs. N. Batum- Edge: Houston

PF L. Scola vs. L. Aldridge- Edge: Portland

 C  Yao vs J. Pryzbilla- Edge: Houston

Bench- Edge: Portland

Verdict: Blazers in 5

Sentence Summary: Blazers, who are great at home, take care of buisness at the Rose Garden and steal one in Houston as they shut down Yao.

6)Dallas vs. 3) San Antonio

PG J. Kidd vs. T. Parker- Edge: San Antonio

SG A. Wright vs R. Mason- Edge: San Antonio

SF J. Howard vs. M. Finley- Edge: Dallas

PF D. Nowitzki vs. T. Duncan- Edge: PUSH (b/c Duncan is injured, otherwise he gets the nod)

  C E. Dampier vs. M. Bonner- Edge: San Antonio

Bench- Edge: Dallas

Verdict: Spurs in 7

Sentence Summary: The best first round matchup in the West finishes in dramatic fashion to re-kindle the fires of this rivalry.

7) New Orleans vs. 2) Denver

PG C. Paul vs. C. Billups- Edge: New Orleans

SG R. Butler vs. D. Jones- Edge:New Orleans

SF P. Stojakovic vs. C. Anthony- Edge: Denver

PF D. West vs. K. Martin- Edge: New Orleans

 C  T. Chandler vs. Nene- Edge: Nuggets

Bench: Nuggets

Verdict: Hornets in 6

Sentence Summary: Paul and Co. match-up well against the Nuggets and Denver never gets production from key players (Smith, Martin, Nene).

A Look Ahead: If my first round predictions hold true here is what will happen in the next rounds. ( I will write another post after the first round is over and have more in- depth evaluations of the match- ups)

Portland @ Los Angeles: Lakers in 7

New Orleans @ San Antonio: Hornets in 6

New Orleans @ Los Angeles: Lakers in 5

Conference Champions: Los Angeles Lakers (man I hated writing those words)

 

The Intro to the Sports Savant

Hello, my name is Alex Tichenor. I am 16 years old and at the moment I am aiming to become a sportswriter later in life so I decided to start a blog. The title of "Savant" is not self appointed so I am not trying bragging. I will try to write at least one entry per week (not counting prediction entries). I will try to be as objective as possible, which is almost impossible. Ok so let me run down my rooting interests really quick with my favorite moment from those teams. Here you go: (note- I am from North Carolina)

NFL: Carolina Panthers: The Panthers are probably the team I follow the most. However I have never been to a game. My best memories from the Panthers are definitely from the 2003-2004 season when they made the Super Bowl. Particularly I remember the NFC divisional, double- overtime game against the Rams where the Rams missed a field goal about a foot short of the crossbar and Steve Smith caught a 60 yarder for the win. The Super Bowl was just painful. I also root for the Bengals in the AFC because they had two Oregon State players, Ocho Cinco and Houshmandzadeh. Housh is gone but I still like them and I WILL stick to them. However I don't have a strong emotional attachment like I do to the Panthers.

NBA: Portland Trailblazers- You're probably saying, why does this guy like the Blazers if he's from North Carolina? The answer is that I like Oregon teams because my extended family is from and lives in Oregon so I have rooting interests. The Hornets were my team until they moved to New Orleans (How's the money situation there?) and prevented the good people of NC from watching Chris Paul's potential Hall of Fame career unfold. I do like the Bobcats, but when the Hornets moved the Bobcats didn't come until a couple of years later so I had already switched to being a Blazers fan. I don't have too many memories of these teams at the moment. The Blazers are making a great run right now so I have been following them with very keen interest this year. I guess the best memory I have is this one of Brandon Roy's buzzer beater against the Rockets.

MLB: Florida Marlins- There is sadly no MLB in North Carolina. I like the Marlins because they have a double- A team about 20 minutes from my where I grew up. I really got hooked during their 2003 world series year because I remember watching Dontrelle and Cabrera just earlier in the season. I did not jump the bandwagon, They have been my favorite team for almost seven years now and I don't have another logical team, (except maybe the Rays because the have a Triple- A team in Durham.)

NHL: Carolina Hurricanes- I do not follow hockey very closely, but I LOVE the Canes. Going to a hockey game is so much fun and the roof gets blown off when the Canes play, its deafening! My favorite memories from this squad are obviously from  their Stanley Cup run a few years ago. The Staal goal with 3 seconds after the Devils scored with thirty seconds. Game 1 of the finals when they were in a three- zip whole  in the middle of the second and somehow won on a crazy goalie miscommunication. I remember Game 5 in overtime when they got a power play, thinking the series was over, and was crushed after a stupid mistake led to an Oilers breakaway winner. Finally I remember Cam Ward's amazing save in the third period of Game 7 to preserve a one goal lead. These a vivid memories that will last me a lifetime, from a hockey team no less.

NCAA: NC State Wolfpack/ Oregon State Beavers- I am an NC State fan first and foremost because I am from there and I have been to many games. Nothing tops ACC basketball and NC State has great tradition. They have had one of the best players in NCAA history in David Thompson,they have had one of the greatest upsets and buzzer beaters in the '83 title game. The football program has brought me some memories I have actually lived through however, particularly Philip Rivers. I saw his first game, an overtime thriller against Arkansas State where Rivers started and never missed a game after that. They have given me Mario Williams, the first player from NC State to be picked number one in the draft. Now those guys are studs in the pros. They've also produced Torry Holt who has been one of the best receivers of the past decade. OSU on the other hand has not given me basketball memories like NC State. However, the football memories are there. I vaguely remember the 2000 Fiesta Bowl where they pummeled Notre Dame with the likes of Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. They always win their bowl games and thrilled with upsets of USC. Plus they had a good almost run to the Rose Bowl this year that intrigued the Nation. Also Oregon State won back to back baseball titles, and to my great pleasure against NC State's ACC rivals UNC. While baseball doesn't get the coverage as basketball and football, I was getting coverage for the Tar Heel side and loving every minute of Oregon State's mini- dynasty. 

Now you know my sports story, hopefully I will be diligent in writing material and eventually achieve my goal of become a sportswriter.